Unemployment Rates and Economic Realities in Tunisia
Recent indicators from the Tunisian labor market have shown a decrease in the unemployment rate to 14.9%. However, this decline raises significant questions regarding the underlying dynamics of active population numbers and job availability, challenging the notion that this drop reflects a genuine improvement in employment conditions. A decreasing unemployment rate does not necessarily correlate with the creation of new jobs; it may coincide with a segment of job seekers exiting the labor market, either due to despair in finding employment or opting for migration in search of better opportunities.
In this context, economist رضا الشكندالي highlights a paradox: while the unemployment rate has decreased, thousands of jobs have been lost, and the number of active workers has also declined. He emphasizes that interpreting labor market statistics requires a comprehensive analysis of various indicators, not solely focusing on the unemployment rate. In a statement to "المغرب", الشكندالي criticized the government's economic policies, asserting that "the enemy of the economy lies within its policies, rather than outside factors."
Job Losses and Labor Market Trends
According to الشكندالي, the reduction in unemployment in Tunisia during the second quarter of 2026 cannot be interpreted as a sign of economic improvement or the success of policies aimed at job creation. He clarifies that the drop to 14.9% does not imply that the Tunisian economy is more capable of generating job opportunities. A significant part of this decline is attributed to many Tunisians withdrawing from the labor market, either due to hopelessness in securing employment or by leaving the country for better prospects. He argues that the interpretation of unemployment figures should not be limited to the declared rate but should also consider the changes in the number of active workers and jobs created within the same timeframe. Notably, the national economy lost approximately 58,000 jobs in the second quarter of 2026 compared to the previous quarter, while the active population decreased by about 77,500 individuals, from approximately 4.26 million to around 4.19 million.
These statistics pose a fundamental question regarding the reasons behind the decline in unemployment: "Has unemployment decreased because the economy has created new jobs, or has part of the labor force simply exited the job market?" الشكندالي affirms that a decrease in the number of job seekers can mathematically lead to a lower unemployment rate, even if the actual employment level has not improved, rendering this indicator insufficient for accurately assessing the economic and social situation.
Furthermore, الشكندالي asserts that the current scenario reflects a growing sense of frustration among youth, particularly those who have not found opportunities that match their qualifications and aspirations. He explains that a young person who loses hope in securing employment may cease their job search, consequently no longer being classified as unemployed according to statistical methodologies. Moreover, such individuals may choose to migrate, which in turn contributes to a decline in the active population. Thus, in this context, a decrease in unemployment does not necessarily signify positive news, as the lower metric could stem from a shrinking workforce rather than an expanding capacity for economic employment.
In conclusion, the concurrent loss of jobs and decrease in the active population reveals a paradox that warrants careful consideration. Economic indicators should not be analyzed in isolation; an economy that generates wealth and jobs should ideally see an increase in employment levels and be capable of absorbing new entrants into the labor market, rather than witnessing a decline in active numbers due to loss of hope or migration. Evaluating the labor market necessitates a comprehensive view of several indicators, including the number of job vacancies, labor participation rates, active population figures, unemployment rates, along with the nature of the jobs being created and the sectors attracting labor. In this regard, الشكندالي highlights the increasing unemployment rate among university graduates as indicative of a deeper crisis than mere fluctuations in the overall unemployment rate, noting that the unemployment rate for university graduates rose from 24% in the second quarter of 2025 to 26.6% during the same period in 2026.
As the analysis of the economic crisis reveals, الشكندالي argues that the Tunisian economy suffers from insufficient investment, particularly in the private sector capable of generating sustainable wealth and jobs. He comments that the government "does what an enemy cannot do to itself" by following economic policies that do not create a conducive environment for investment. The central issue lies in the unattractiveness of the business and investment climate, exacerbated by fluctuating economic policies, bureaucratic complexities, and the obstacles faced by investors in conducting business. He emphasizes that a decline in investment as a percentage of gross domestic product is one of the most significant indicators of the difficulties facing the economy. Sustainable wealth creation cannot occur without investments that enhance businesses, boost productivity, and generate new job opportunities.
Ultimately, الشكندالي stresses that the employment crisis is intertwined with the nature of economic growth itself and its ability to yield stable, productive jobs that meet the aspirations of youth. If a decline in unemployment occurs alongside job losses and a shrinking active population, it cannot be considered a sufficient indicator of recovery. Tunisia requires an economic policy that positions private sector investment as a primary driver of growth. الشكندالي warns that if the current situation persists, it may exacerbate the phenomenon of brain drain and youth emigration, especially given the widening gap between educational attainment and available job opportunities in the labor market.
As reported by ar.lemaghreb.tn.
