The Struggles of Moroccan Youth: A Deepening Crisis
The recent surge in irregular migration from Morocco to Europe, particularly highlighted by the influx witnessed in Ceuta on July 30 and 31, reveals an underlying economic crisis characterized by a significant lack of opportunities and motivation among the youth in Morocco. The bleak outlook for a desirable future, a sentiment echoed across many parts of the African continent, not only burdens millions of families in Morocco but also adversely impacts the national economy, creating a vicious cycle that has persisted for years. According to the National Employment Survey by the High Commission for Planning (HCP), a Moroccan equivalent of the National Statistics Institute, there were approximately 1.5 million young individuals aged between 15 and 24 who were neither studying nor working in 2023. This alarming figure escalates to 2.9 million when considering those up to 29 years old, indicating that one in three young people under 30 in Morocco is detached from both the labor market and educational institutions. This staggering statistic of 33.6% nearly triples the OECD’s average of 12% and surpasses the regional average for the Middle East and North Africa (MENA).
The dire situation facing Moroccan youth is not correlated with economic growth, contrary to trends observed in Western nations. Despite Morocco's GDP showing a consistent upward trend over the past decade, the benefits have not trickled down to the youth demographic. In fact, the country experienced a contraction in its economy only in 2020 due to the COVID-19 pandemic, while it has enjoyed over seven years of growth exceeding 3%, as reported by the World Bank. However, even with this growth, the overall unemployment rate stood at 9.2%, with a staggering 24.9% among those aged 15 to 24. Most concerning is the unemployment rate for graduates, which soared to an astonishing 59.2%. This alarming disparity underscores the challenges faced by the educated youth in securing meaningful employment.
The Economic Cost of 'Ninis' in Morocco
Further complicating the issue, a World Bank report highlights that the probability of being classified as 'nini' (neither in employment nor in education) is significantly higher among women—estimated around 74%—especially those who are young mothers or married, as well as those with lower educational levels residing in smaller towns. In contrast, urban areas tend to present more opportunities due to diversified economies. The most troubling aspect of this phenomenon, as discussed in the study titled "Once nini, always nini?", is the social immobility within this demographic. The researchers concluded that a significant majority of those who were categorized as 'ninis' in 2010 remained outside both the labor market and the educational system a decade later, reflecting a troubling trend of persistent disengagement.
This pervasive disillusionment among Moroccan youth is not only a social burden but also poses significant challenges to public services, security, and migration patterns. A 2024 study published in the academic journal *Vulnerable Children and Youth Studies* estimates that the financial cost of this 'nini' cohort, specifically those aged between 15 and 24, amounts to a staggering 60 billion dirhams. This figure incorporates 55 billion dirhams in lost minimum annual salaries that 'ninis' would otherwise earn and an additional 5 billion dirhams in potential tax revenue. This 60 billion dirhams represents approximately 5.3% of Morocco's GDP for 2019, the year referenced in the study. By applying similar calculations, considering the annual gross minimum wage in Morocco is 41,000 dirhams and applying a 10% income tax, it is estimated that the economic toll could rise to 131 billion dirhams (around 12.2 billion euros), which constitutes about 7.6% of Morocco's GDP for 2025.
As reported by vozpopuli.com.
