Recent indicators from the labor market in Tunisia reveal a decline in the unemployment rate to 14.9%. However, this decline raises critical questions regarding the actual improvement in employment conditions, particularly when considering the evolution of the active workforce and job opportunities. The drop in unemployment does not necessarily indicate the creation of new jobs; rather, it may coincide with a segment of job seekers withdrawing from the labor market, either due to despair over job prospects or as a result of migration.
Economist Reda Chakendali highlights a paradox in the current situation: while the unemployment rate has decreased, the number of job opportunities has simultaneously diminished, leading to a reduction in the active population. Chakendali emphasizes that understanding the labor market figures requires a comprehensive analysis of various indicators rather than focusing solely on the unemployment rate. He asserts that the government is pursuing misguided economic policies, stating, "The enemy of the economy lies within its policies, not outside of it."
Job Losses Amidst Declining Unemployment Rates
Chakendali argues that the drop in unemployment during the second quarter of 2026 should not be interpreted as a sign of improved economic performance or successful policies in job creation. The reduction to 14.9% does not inherently mean that the Tunisian economy has become more capable of generating job opportunities. He clarifies that part of this decline is linked to the withdrawal of a number of Tunisians from the labor market, driven by either hopelessness in finding work or the pursuit of better opportunities abroad. He stresses that analyzing unemployment indicators should not be limited to the reported percentage but should also connect to the changes in the number of active individuals and newly created jobs during the same period. Notably, the national economy suffered a loss of approximately 58,000 jobs in the second quarter of 2026 compared to the previous quarter, while the active population decreased by around 77,500 individuals, from about 4.26 million to nearly 4.19 million.
This data raises a crucial question regarding the reasons behind the decrease in unemployment: "Has unemployment fallen because the economy created new jobs, or because a portion of job seekers has exited the labor market?" Chakendali affirms that a reduction in the number of job seekers can mathematically lead to a lower unemployment rate, even if the overall employment volume has not improved, rendering the indicator itself insufficient for assessing the true economic and social conditions.
A Collective Withdrawal from the Labor Market
Chakendali observes that the current trends reflect a growing sense of frustration among certain youth demographics, particularly those who have not found opportunities that match their qualifications and aspirations. He notes that a young person who loses hope in securing a job may cease to search for employment, subsequently removing themselves from the unemployed category according to statistical methodologies. Additionally, some may opt for migration, further contributing to the decline in the active population. In this context, the reduction in unemployment does not necessarily signify positive news, as the decrease in the indicator could stem from a shrinking labor force rather than an expansion of the economy's employment capabilities. According to Chakendali, the issue extends beyond the unemployment rate; it encompasses the economy's ability to retain active workers, accommodate new entrants into the labor market, and create value-added job opportunities.
He emphasizes that the simultaneous loss of jobs alongside a declining number of active individuals reveals a paradox worthy of attention. Economic indicators should not be analyzed in isolation; an economy that generates wealth and job opportunities should experience growth in employment figures and be capable of absorbing new job seekers, rather than witnessing a drop in active numbers due to despair or migration. Moreover, evaluating the labor market necessitates examining multiple combined indicators, including the number of jobs created, labor market participation rates, the size of the active population, the unemployment rate, and the nature of the jobs being generated across various sectors.
Chakendali also highlights the rising unemployment rate among university graduates, considering this increase as indicative of a deeper crisis than mere fluctuations in the overall unemployment rate. According to the data he references, the unemployment rate among university graduates rose from 24% in the second quarter of 2025 to 26.6% during the same period in 2026.
In diagnosing the underlying causes of the crisis, Chakendali points to the weak investment climate in Tunisia, particularly concerning private investments capable of generating sustainable jobs and wealth. He argues that the state is "doing to itself what an enemy would do to its adversary" by implementing economic policies that fail to provide a conducive environment for investment. He explains that the central issue lies in the unattractiveness of the business and investment climate, stemming from fluctuating economic policies, an array of administrative procedures, and the complexity of pathways for investors, coupled with the difficulties of conducting business. Chakendali reiterates that the decline in investment as a percentage of GDP is one of the most prominent indicators of the challenges faced by the economy. He concludes that sustainable wealth creation cannot happen without investments capable of enhancing institutions, boosting productivity, and generating new job opportunities.
Chakendali underscores that the employment crisis is intrinsically linked to the nature of economic growth itself and how well it can produce stable and productive jobs that meet the aspirations of the youth. He argues that if the decline in unemployment coincides with job losses and a shrinking active population, it cannot be regarded as a sufficient indicator of recovery. Tunisia requires an economic policy that positions private sector investment as a fundamental driver of growth. Chakendali warns that if this situation persists, it may exacerbate the phenomenon of skilled labor and youth migration, particularly in light of the widening gap between education and training levels on one side and the available opportunities in the labor market on the other.
Thus, the decline in unemployment, amidst job losses and a shrinking active population, necessitates a reevaluation of the figures. This decrease may conceal a growing withdrawal from the labor market and a migration of skilled individuals and youth, reflecting the depth of the economic and social crisis more than a genuine recovery of the economy.
As reported by ar.lemaghreb.tn.
