Recent indicators from the job market in Tunisia reveal a decline in the unemployment rate to 14.9%. However, this decrease raises critical questions about the actual improvement in employment conditions, particularly with respect to the evolving number of active individuals in the workforce and the creation of jobs. It is essential to recognize that a drop in the unemployment rate does not necessarily correlate with the generation of new jobs; it can coincide with a segment of job seekers exiting the labor market, either due to despair in finding employment or as a result of migration.
In this context, economic professor Ridha Chakendali highlights a paradox: while the unemployment rate has decreased, thousands of jobs have been lost alongside a reduction in the active workforce. Chakendali stresses that understanding labor market statistics requires a comprehensive analysis of various indicators rather than focusing solely on the unemployment rate. He asserts that the government is pursuing misguided economic policies, stating that "the enemy of the economy lies within its policies, not outside of it."
According to Chakendali, the recent decline in the unemployment rate, recorded at 14.9% during the second quarter of 2026, cannot be interpreted as a sign of improved economic performance or successful job creation policies. He emphasizes that part of this decline is attributed to many Tunisians withdrawing from the job market, whether from hopelessness regarding job opportunities or through leaving the country in search of better prospects. The analysis of unemployment figures should not be limited to the published percentage, but should also consider the changes in the number of active individuals and jobs created during the same period. Notably, the national economy lost around 58,000 jobs in the second quarter of 2026 compared to the previous quarter, while the number of active individuals decreased by approximately 77,500, from roughly 4.26 million to about 4.19 million people.
This data provokes a fundamental question about the reasons behind the drop in the unemployment rate: "Did unemployment decrease because the economy generated new jobs, or did a portion of job seekers leave the labor market?" Chakendali confirms that a reduction in the number of job seekers can mathematically lead to a lower unemployment rate, even if employment levels do not improve, which renders this indicator insufficient for accurately assessing the economic and social situation.
Chakendali points out that the prevailing circumstances reflect a growing sense of frustration among segments of the youth population, particularly those who have not found opportunities that match their qualifications and aspirations. He explains that a young person who loses hope in securing a job may cease their job search, consequently no longer being classified as unemployed according to statistical methodologies. This may also lead to a choice of emigration, further contributing to the decline in the active population. Thus, a decrease in unemployment in this scenario does not necessarily signify positive news, as the drop in the indicator may stem from a shrinking workforce rather than an expansion of the economy's capacity to create jobs. Chakendali asserts that the real issue lies not only with the unemployment rate but also with the economy's ability to retain active individuals, accommodate newcomers to the workforce, and generate value-added job opportunities.
The simultaneous loss of jobs and decline in the active population underscores a paradox that warrants attention. Economic indicators should not be interpreted in isolation; an economy that creates wealth and jobs should ideally see an increase in employment levels, capable of absorbing new job seekers rather than experiencing a drop in active numbers due to despair or migration. Assessing the job market necessitates a holistic examination of multiple indicators, including job creation, labor force participation rates, the number of active individuals, unemployment rates, and the nature of jobs being created, as well as the sectors attracting labor. In this context, Chakendali remarks on the rising unemployment rate among university graduates, indicating a deeper crisis beyond mere fluctuations in the overall unemployment rate. According to the data he referenced, the unemployment rate among university graduates increased from 24% in the second quarter of 2025 to 26.6% during the same period in 2026.
Chakendali attributes the economic crisis to inadequate investment, particularly private investment capable of generating sustainable wealth and employment. He asserts that the government is "doing to itself what an enemy would not do to its adversary" by implementing economic policies that he believes fail to create a conducive environment for investment. The central issue lies in the unattractive business and investment climate, resulting from fluctuating economic policies, a multitude of administrative procedures, and the complexity of processes faced by investors, alongside the challenges of conducting business. He emphasizes that the decrease in investment as a percentage of GDP is one of the most significant indicators of the challenges confronting the economy. Sustainable wealth creation cannot occur without investments that enhance institutions, boost productivity, and create new job opportunities.
Chakendali emphasizes that the employment crisis is increasingly linked to the nature of economic growth itself and its capacity to generate stable and productive jobs that meet the aspirations of the youth. If a decline in unemployment occurs while the economy is shedding jobs and the number of active individuals is decreasing, this cannot be regarded as a sufficient indicator of recovery. He adds that Tunisia requires an economic policy that positions private sector investment as a fundamental driver of growth. Chakendali warns that the continuation of this situation may exacerbate the phenomenon of skilled emigration among the youth, especially as the gap between educational attainment and available job opportunities widens.
Therefore, the decline in the unemployment rate amid job loss and a shrinking workforce necessitates, as he points out, a different interpretation of the figures, as a decrease in the rate may conceal a growing withdrawal from the job market and a brain drain, both of which reflect the depth of the economic and social crisis more than they indicate a genuine economic recovery.
As reported by ar.lemaghreb.tn.
